Goldman Hasn't Seen Cruise Line Sentiment This Negative In Years

Cruise industry sentiment has turned negative in late 2025, not necessarily because demand is softening, but because capacity is set to surge next year, raising the risk of price wars. That could mean steep discounts and bargains for travelers, assuming baby boomers are willing to roll the dice on potential ship-wide norovirus outbreaks.

"We have not seen cruise sentiment this negative in a while, and for good reason. After neither Royal Caribbean Group nor Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings beat third-quarter net yield guidance, Norwegian guided down fourth-quarter net yields and discussed declining net per diem growth in the first quarter during our call last week," Goldman analyst Lizzie Dove wrote in a note on Monday.

Much of the negative sentiment appears to be fueled by what Dove says is a 9% surge in Caribbean cruise capacity next year, driven by new ship additions and itinerary shifts. She said this is reminiscent of 2014's oversupply period.